One of the night's biggest mismatches – on paper anyway – features Nasrat Haqparast vs. Landon Quinones in a lightweight bout at UFC 293.

Haqparast recently halted a two-fight skid but still has a lot of work to do to reclaim top-prospect status. He's a big favorite as he now meets Quinones, a cast member from The Ultimate Fighter 31 who steps in on short notice.

Let's preview Haqparast vs. Quinones at UFC 293.

Quinones, who lost via submission in under a minute on this season of TUF, will make a short-notice debut against Haqparast, who has previously struggled as a substantial favorite.

I often find Haqparast to be overrated relative to the betting market. He lost to Drew Dober as a -350 favorite and failed to separate from a debuting Rafa Garcia at a -500 price tag before dropping clear decisions to Daniel Hooker and Bobby Green as a slight underdog. I laid the juice against Haqparast in both fights.

Recently, Haqparast was out-struck at a distance (72-60) by John Makdessi, a fighter 10 years his senior.

Haqparast has a powerful left hand but just one finish at the UFC level. He seems slower compared to most lightweights and rarely grapples (1.2 takedown attempts per 15 minutes, 30% accuracy).

Haqparast's best skills are likely durability and cardio, but while he lands at a good clip, he doesn't push a particularly hard pace and seemingly fights to the level of his competition from one bout to the next.

While Haqparast should look to wrestle Quinones, he isn't reliable enough to do so, which could lead to a relatively close southpaw vs. southpaw striking fight in which Haqparast never comes close to justifying his steep price tag.

He either needs an early finish – or dominant grappling control – to justify his substantial favoritism in this spot.

I projected Quinones closer to +340 and would poke his moneyline at +370 or better. And we'll bet the fight to reach a decision up to -126 (projected -137).

The Picks: Landon Quinones (+380, 0.25u at Caesars) | Fight Goes to Decision (-120, 0.25u at FanDuel)