On Saturday the UFC returns to the UFC Apex facility in Las Vegas for an 11-fight card headlined by a crucial lightweight bout between No. 10-ranked contender Grant Dawson and fan favorite Bobby Green.

Dawson, a Contender Series alum, is unbeaten (9-0-1) under the UFC banner but will make his first appearance in a five-round fight or a main event as part of Saturday card. Dawson's past five bouts have all been inside the smaller cage at the Apex, which helps his pressure grappling style.

"King" Green will make his 28th appearance between Strikeforce and UFC. Although he has competed in a main event against Islam Makahachev – in addition to five-round bouts earlier in his career – Green hasn't been past the 15-minute mark since 2011. Still, the 37-year-old, 46-fight-veteran might have the cardio advantage in this matchup.

Below, I'll provide my analysis and projections for the UFC Vegas 80 main event between Grant Dawson and Bobby Green (4 p.m. ET, ESPN+) and utilize those factors to bet on these lightweights, who should make their cage walks at approximately 9:25 p.m. ET.

This matchup is a reasonably binary striker vs. grappler fight. Dawson can gain dominant positions on the mat and rack up substantial control time or 10-8 rounds, primarily via the body triangle, which justifies his steep favoritism.

Green is the much better boxer, but the distance striking exchanges may be limited.

Aside from Makhachev, Green hasn't faced many wrestling-focused fighters in his recent UFC run, but anyone who has tried to grapple Green has been able to take him down at some point. While Green typically excels at recovering off of his back and returning to his feet after takedowns, Dawson provides a different level of pressure than he has faced from an opponent such as Clay Guida (landed three of 12 takedowns, 4:32 control time), for example, and should be able to consolidate more control time than Green is typically accustomed to, with each successful attempt.

The body triangle – which is Dawson's signature technique – is the most important defensive position for Green in this fight; Dawson has rapid transitions from all grappling positions to back takes, and it seems a near certainty that he will find his way to his preferred position at some point during the fight.

From there, Green needs to protect his neck and fight the choke while looking for ways to get out of those positions. Green is an underrated defensive wrestler – and grappler – and I ultimately expect his submission defense to hold up and keep him in this fight, but he might be defending against dominant positions for long stretches.

While Dawson showed potentially concerning cardio earlier in his career – typically fading in the third round and leading to his draw with Ricky Glenn – he looks like an improved fighter since moving to American Top Team in 2022 while displaying improved stamina and striking to help round out his game.

Arguably, Green feels like a step down in competition – but potentially a more prominent name to American audiences – relative to his last fight against Damir Ismagulov; we cashed an underdog ticket on the wrestler in that bout, and oddsmakers think he's 36% more likely to win this bout than the Ismagulov fight.

Still, the current line also seems like an overcorrection compared to Dawson's recent valuation in the betting market, given the cardio dynamics – and Dawson's untested gas tank – in the championship rounds.

I expect Dawson to land takedowns and gain control time early in the early rounds. However, the longer the fight extends, the better I would give Green a chance at defending those entries and denying those dominant positions, which could provide the potential for a late comeback.

Green typically takes over in all of his bouts the longer they extend; he paces himself exceptionally well – both in rounds and across the entire fight – and does everything he can to make every round as close and competitive as possible, whether for good or bad.

Green continually fights to the level of competition throughout his career, which again – for good or bad – typically makes him a better investment as an underdog than a favorite.

Green has seen several splits and controversial decisions since he provides awkward moments for judges with his shoulder roll technique, which blocks punches but doesn't provide clear optics, and body language; he will feint being hurt to draw an opponent in or shake his head no when his opponents land clean.

Green has all the tools of an excellent sprawl and brawl point fighter – clean boxing, tremendous output, good scrambling and seemingly endless cardio – but his game's subtleties don't allow him to separate clearly from his opponents, even in victory.

While Green is the superior striker and will look to make the most of the opportunities that he'll get to land in the pocket, he will likely need to deny takedown attempts or defend submissions first to make Dawson tire and drag a potentially overzealous wrestler to deep waters.

I projected Grant Dawson to win this matchup 78% of the time (-355 implied odds), and I don't see value on either side of the moneyline.

Dawson is a durable fighter – and Green is generally much more of an attritional finisher than a one-shot knockout artist; he carries below-average power for the lightweight division.

Green likely needs to win on output – or late stoppage – against a tiring opponent in the second half of this bout. As a result, betting Green by decision (projected +810, listed +1000 at DraftKings) or Green's late props in Round 4 (+3100) and or Round 5 (+3700) are all worthy considerations for attacking this fight.

Additionally, you can consider betting Green live at a higher price after Rounds 2 or 3, especially if he has already proven the ability to defend Dawson's rear-naked choke by that point of the fight.

On the Dawson side, I would consider betting the favorite to win by submission (projected +114, listed +130 at FanDuel); he should get to the dominant positions he prefers, making that bet more of a 50/50 proposition. However, I like Green's submission defense enough to attack a different angle.

I expect this bout to end via finish 66% of the time (+194 implied odds), slightly less often than the odds suggest (+200 at DraftKings). However, I would weigh more of that finish equity toward the second half of the fight since both lightweights tire under each other's pressure and volume.

Dawson's durability and Green's submission defense should be sufficient to neutralize one another's biggest finishing threat early in the bout. However, I don't want to bet on Dawson to survive the championship rounds until I see him do it – I'd favor him heavily in a three-round fight, but the extra 10 minutes should help Green's chances as much as the small cage assists Dawson's style.

Bet the Over 2.5 Rounds up to -150 (projected -163) and potentially target a live entry on Green in the second half of the fight.

The Pick: Grant Dawson vs. Bobby Green Over 2.5 Rounds (-125 at DraftKings)